Welcome back to Data Under Glass, your weekly strategic intelligence extracted from real battlefield deployments, packaged for leaders who need to win, not just understand.
Over the past nine months, I've mapped institutional failures across African markets. The pattern is undeniable: courts, banks, and consumer protection systems cost too much, move too slow, or don't exist. This creates a vacuum operators must fill.
The winners aren't trying to formalize the informal economy. They're becoming the trusted institutions themselves.
Today, you're getting the Institutional Gap Framework. How 200-year-old lending networks achieve 98% repayment without credit bureaus, why Market Queens control $52B in West African trade, and the operator story where pivoting from "banking the unbanked" to "digitizing trust networks" accelerated product-market fit by 18 months.
— Anderson Oz'.
From The Operator's Desk
Case In Point: Credit scoring platform (Pre-seed) targeting unbanked West Africans
Initial Positioning: "Banking the unbanked." Build credit scores using alternative data, compete with banks.
Problem: Zero traction after 8 months. Users signed up, never transacted. Bank partnerships stalled.
Market Research Revealed:
They weren't competing with banks. They were competing with 200-year-old informal lending networks (Susu, Rotating Savings and Credit Associations, community credit groups) with 98% repayment rates and operating costs under 3% of loan value. Formal banking: 12-19%.
The Pivot:
From "banking the unbanked" to "enhancing informal lending with data."
They integrated with Susu collectors instead of replacing them. Built digital records layered onto existing social trust networks.
Outcome:
Total Addressable Market (TAM) clarity improved immediately. They weren't converting bank customers. They were addressing millions who trusted informal networks but needed larger, longer-term capital.
Product-market fit accelerated 18 months by working with trusted collectors, they inherited 98% repayment rates, solving collateral and risk instantly.
Don't fight 200 years of institutional evolution, digitize it.
The $52B Reality: Why Informal Systems Win
Formal institutions exist to provide certainty: consumer protection, legal recourse, quality assurance, risk management. In most African markets, this framework is too expensive, too slow, or nonexistent.
The Legal Recourse Trap
Average cost to enforce a $15,000 contract: $45,000.
For anything but the largest deals, pursuing legal action is financially irrational. Contracts become unenforceable, forcing reliance on bilateral trust and community sanction.